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According to the National Bank of Ukraine, approximately 200,000 more Ukrainians are expected to migrate abroad this year. Last year, this figure was 500,000. The same report predicts that in 2026, 200,000 migrants will begin returning to Ukraine, with half a million expected to return in 2027.
However, social surveys indicate a growing number of Ukrainian migrants intend to remain abroad even after the war. As a result, a large-scale and rapid return of Ukrainian migrants is not anticipated.
Ongoing migration from Ukraine is primarily driven by high security risks, constant shelling, destruction, and a decline in living conditions. Over the past three years of full-scale war, there has also been a significant outflow of 17-year-old boys seeking safety abroad.
The Risks Facing Young Ukrainian Boys Abroad
Due to martial law, Ukrainian men over the age of 18 are prohibited from leaving the country. As a result, many parents are sending their underage sons abroad before they reach adulthood. Parents of 15- and 16-year-old boys are increasingly searching for schools, colleges, or universities in other countries, with Poland and Slovakia being the most common choices. If the boys speak German, Austria and Germany are also popular destinations due to better living conditions and strong social protection systems.
However, these young boys face significant risks as they find themselves alone in foreign countries, often without parental supervision. Parents may not always be able to check if their child is attending school, what kind of environment they are in, or what influences they are exposed to.
For university students, dormitories provide housing. Younger students typically live in rented accommodations, sometimes with relatives. In response to this growing trend, travel agencies now offer services to help minors relocate. In many cases, a mother accompanies her son abroad before returning to Ukraine, leaving him to navigate life alone.
Reports from Caritas organizations in Romania and the Czech Republic, which assist Ukrainian refugees, confirm a rise in unaccompanied boys aged 16-17 arriving in groups. After obtaining temporary protection status, many of these boys disappear. Their whereabouts and activities remain unknown. Some may have been promised jobs, particularly in the Czech Republic, where education is no longer mandatory at 16. Without knowledge of the local language or legal system, these young migrants are highly vulnerable to exploitation. A deeper investigation into this issue is urgently needed.
A Growing Trend: Young Girls Following Boys Abroad
It is likely that young Ukrainian girls will also begin following their male peers abroad. Many young people feel uncertain about their future, even after the war ends. There is no guarantee of stability or economic opportunity, leading to a broader trend of youth migration. This situation presents significant challenges for Ukraine’s future.
The Situation with Orphans and Other Vulnerable Children
At the start of the full-scale invasion, all orphanages in Ukraine were evacuated. More than 4,000 Ukrainian orphans were relocated to EU countries, but only half have been returned to Ukraine. Meanwhile, many children remain in Russian-occupied territories, with a large number forcibly deported to Russia. Repatriating these children remains extremely difficult.
Countries such as Italy and Switzerland, where child safety is prioritized over international agreements, have refused to return children to Ukraine while active hostilities continue. They have taken responsibility for the children currently on their territory.
In Switzerland, there was an incident in which Ukrainian state guardians mistreated evacuated orphans, leading authorities to remove the children from their care.
Caritas Poland is currently assisting 35 orphans evacuated from Ukraine, providing them with social and psychological support, as well as Polish language and integration courses. However, there is a growing need to improve communication and offer additional support to the guardians of these orphans.
Author
Iryna Maievska
Head of the Safe Migration and Counter-Trafficking Program
Caritas Ukraine
This update is provided by Natalia Holynska, RENATE Working Board Member for Ukraine.